Are we going to win?
The win number, what it takes to get there, and whether the field and finance programs are on pace to deliver it.
In plain terms: how many votes we need, and whether today’s pace gets us there with room to spare.
Projected to reach 16,577 supporter IDs by election day against a target of 18,383.
The campaign is at risk of falling short on supporter identification. To win, 209,270 votes are needed, which means banking 18,383 confirmed supporter IDs before election day. 8,072 are banked so far (44% of target), and at the current rate of 379 IDs/week the campaign projects 16,577 by election day. Closing the gap means lifting the weekly ID rate to about 460/week — see the levers below.
Win-number calculatorEstimate
This is the campaign’s number, not ours — set the assumptions and the Win number and Expected turnout at the top of the page recompute with them. Right now it’s set to the campaign’s current plan.
Estimate only — not a forecast or a guarantee. Outputs are simple arithmetic on the assumptions above and a baseline modeled from past district turnout. Real results depend on the candidates, the national environment, registration changes, and events no model captures. Treat this as a planning sandbox, not a prediction; sanity-check against your own targeting before committing resources.
Does the money support the plan?
Full fundraising detail lives on the Finance page; this is just the slice that funds voter contact.
Strategic model · derived from the win plan, field, and finance data · as of 2026-05-30