Know the ground you’re running on
Census and voting data from statewide down to the precinct. Your data playground for targeting, turf cutting, and win-number planning.
In plain terms: who lives here, how they’ve voted, and where the persuadable and turnout opportunities are.
District map
Region planner
Being redesignedEarly county-level version. A full rebuild is coming, modeled on Dave’s Redistricting App: paint precincts on a real basemap with live demographic + partisan rollups. For now, pick a region and click counties to paint them in.
Coming in Phase 2: freehand-draw regions, precinct-level boundaries, and pushing your named regions into the filters on every other page so the whole dashboard can break out by region.
Voting profile
ModeledEstimated from party registration, recent vote history, and Census composition — not a head count. Base D / Base R are voters who reliably break one way; persuadable is the modeled middle. Treat as a planning estimate, not a roster.
U.S. House runs every 2 years, so each cycle above is a direct prior of this contest. The seat has shifted -0.7 pts toward the GOP from 2020 to 2024.
Demographics
Counties in OH-13
| Name | Reg. voters ↓ | Persuadable | '24 margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summit | 292,000 | 13% | D+15.9 | |
| Stark | 152,000 | 16% | R+5.4 | |
| Medina | 82,000 | 15% | R+11.7 | |
| Portage | 72,000 | 18% | D+1.5 | |
| Wayne | 46,000 | 14% | R+17.7 |
Top opportunity precincts
Ranked by an opportunity score that rewards precincts with both a large persuadable universe and room for turnout to grow.
Score =(registered voters × modeled persuadable share) × (0.6 + turnout headroom), where turnout headroom = 1 − last election’s turnout. So a precinct with many up-for-grabs voters that also under-votes ranks highest.
ModeledBuilt on the modeled persuadable share, so it inherits that estimate’s uncertainty. Illustrative targeting math over 54 precincts — a starting point for turf decisions, not a guarantee.
| Precinct | Reg. voters | Persuadable | '24 turnout | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summit 9 | 27,464 | 12% | 64% | 3,190 |
| Summit 4 | 23,378 | 14% | 64% | 3,142 |
| Summit 10 | 26,718 | 12% | 63% | 3,136 |
| Summit 2 | 21,712 | 15% | 69% | 2,944 |
| Summit 13 | 27,670 | 12% | 71% | 2,881 |
| Summit 14 | 23,123 | 11% | 71% | 2,325 |
| Stark 9 | 16,665 | 14% | 61% | 2,310 |
| Summit 11 | 20,055 | 12% | 73% | 2,164 |
District news
Recent coverage relevant to OH-13. Sample feed for the demo.
- TurnoutSummit County sets early-vote locations and hours for the fall electionAkron Beacon Journal · May 28
- EconomyManufacturing hiring ticks up across the Akron-Canton corridorIdeastream Public Media · May 24
- EducationOH-13 school districts weigh levy renewals on the November ballotCleveland.com · May 21
- InfrastructureFederal road funding heads to Stark and Portage county projectsSpectrum News 1 · May 18
- HealthcareRural clinics in the district expand telehealth accessLocal 12 · May 14
Demo data · not real census or voter records